A tip in the sports betting sector means almost nothing on its own. It is the values that lead to profitable bets in the long term. If a bet is mathematically weak, it won’t be placed. This principle is easy to understand and is the core idea behind value betting. But how can value bets be discovered? How is value calculated in sports betting? Every fact you can use for the HellSpin login.
What is a Value Bet?
Those who want to engage in sports betting successfully rarely hope for simply a high number of correct tips; instead, they aim to generate as much money as possible. There is a significant difference between these two aspects. It is relatively easy to win a high number of bets, which does not say much about the profit. Instead, the sought-after aspect is the financial added value, which can be found in value bets.
It means that a bet offers a value worth investing in. Of course, there is always a risk involved, but the question is whether, in the long run, more profit than loss will be generated. Value exists when the self-calculated odds are lower than those offered by the bookmaker. Accordingly, the bettor receives a higher quote for the calculated probability and thus has the chance for a higher profit, which should be taken advantage of. It is important to note that the calculation of one’s own odds is subjective, and an objective value cannot be determined. Otherwise, all betting providers would already be bankrupt.
Example of Value Bets outside of Sports
A coin toss is not a sports bet but is fundamentally similar in principle to the concept of probabilities. It is easy to see that the probability of both heads and tails is 50%. Converted into odds, this probability corresponds to 2.00 (calculation: 1 / probability * 100). However, this quote is not available from bookmakers, as they need to account for a margin.
The value area now lies above the odds of 2.00. Betting below it in a coin toss would not be worthwhile and would lead to losses in the long term. However, betting above could yield long-term profits. The reason for this lies in the law of large numbers. With a high number of coin tosses, heads and tails would indeed tend to approach the values of 50%. While this is relatively easy to see with a coin toss, the same principle applies to sports betting, although the factors involved are far more complex and require more consideration. Nevertheless, a bet should never be placed below the fair odds (in this case, exactly 2.00).
Calculating the Value of a Bet
The value of a bet can also be represented numerically using a formula. To do this, you subtract the bookmaker’s odds from your own calculated odds:
Value = [(1 / own odds) – (1 / bookmaker’s odds)] x 100
This results in value percentages of, for example, 2.4% with odds of 2.10 in a coin toss. It increases with odds of 2.50, reaching 10%. If you go below the fair odds of 2.00, for instance, with odds of 1.90, you only get -2.6%. It becomes clear what the bet will generate in the long run, provided that the assessment of one’s own value is indeed accurate. This last fact is the critical factor.
Value Calculation: What Factors Are Involved?
A coin toss is easy to illustrate: a 50% probability for each event. In this case, the probabilities are clear. In sports betting, however, this is not possible in the same way. Finding value bets in sports betting is only achievable by approximating the fair odds with many factors. A 100% valid probability cannot be established. The absence of objective value probability, however, is the significant advantage of sports betting, for otherwise, it would be mere gambling without a serious strategic component.
Ultimately, finding value bets is more of an estimation exercise than a calculation. To do this, all available information must be utilized. This includes team results, direct comparisons, home and away advantages, goal ratios, player injuries, motivation, and many other things.
How strongly each value is weighted is a major task for sports bettors and falls within the realm of analysis. Ultimately, one should also learn from mistakes and adjust the weighting of individual factors. It certainly makes a significant difference whether a top striker and starting player is injured or if the third-string goalkeeper of a team is hurt. Over time, with several hundred bets, a picture can be created of one’s results. If, at this point, one has generated a profit, it seems likely that they are finding value bets in the long run.